Peggy Noonan Makes the Case For Why Putin ‘Really Could’ Use a Nuclear Weapon

Wall Street Journal columnist Peggy Noonan laid out the case for why Western leaders and the public should take seriously the threat from Russian President Vladimir Putin that he would use a nuclear weapon as part of his brutal invasion of Ukraine.

Noonan, a former speechwriter for President Ronald Reagan and a best-selling author, explained in her column on Thursday, “We factor in but do not sufficiently appreciate the real possibility of nuclear-weapon use by Russia in Ukraine.”

Noonan explained the biggest disconnect between the public’s lack of concern over Putin’s nuclear threats and the likelihood he may actually use one has to do with a misconception of what a nuclear strike might actually look like in 2022.

“We aren’t worried enough about Russian nuclear use in part because we imagine such a thing as huge missiles with huge warheads launched from another continent and speeding through space,” Noonan wrote.

“We think: That won’t happen! It has never happened! But the more likely use would be not of big strategic nuclear weapons but smaller tactical ones on the battlefield,” she argued. “Such weapons have a shorter range and carry lower-yield warheads.”

Noonan went on to argue that as Putin continues to lose troops and his soldiers become more and more demoralized the possibility of a nuclear strike becomes more likely. She posited that Putin may also need to use a nuclear weapon to regain support domestically as well.

“To change the story. To shock and destabilize his adversaries,” Noonan wrote, listing why Putin might resort to such a horrific tactic. “To scare the people of North Atlantic Treaty Organization countries so they’ll force their leaders to back away. To remind the world—and Russians—that he does have military power. To avoid a massive and public military defeat. To win.”

Noonan added that Putin’s own miscalculations going into Ukraine and his erratic behavior support add to her fears that he may actually use a nuke:

It seems to me he has become more careless, operating with a different historical consciousness. He launched a world-historic military invasion that, whatever his geostrategic aims, was shambolic—fully aggressive and confident, yet not realistically thought through.

Noonan concluded that Western leaders need to make clear they are taking Putin’s threat more seriously. She argued, “I am reading Mr. Putin as someone who’s grown bored of that threat, who believes he can more than match it.” She noted that Putin strikes her now as someone who clearly believes the “Americans would not respond disproportionately” to a nuclear escalation.

Noonan ended by imploring the Biden administration to “wake up every day thinking: What can we do to lower the odds?

Think more, talk less. And when you think, think dark.”