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The final Los Angeles Times-sponsored recall poll from the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies shows that the upcoming vote on whether to oust Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) is all but decided.
According the Friday poll, which surveyed likely voters between Aug. 30 and Sept. 6, a large majority oppose recalling Newsom.
60.1 percent oppose replacing the governor, per the poll, while just 38.5 percent are in favor of the recall.
As the vote is set for Sept. 14, only 2 percent of those surveyed either said they remained undecided or declined to answer, further highlighting the likelihood that Newsom will remain in power.
The poll also found that 65 percent of likely voters, as well as 89 percent of Democratic voters, believed that electing a Republican governor would threaten California’s liberal stances on abortion, climate change, and immigration.
The poll’s findings parallel those of a Public Policy Institute of California survey conducted earlier this month, which found that 58 percent of likely voters oppose removing Newsom, while 39 percent support the recall.
The recent polls have granted Newsom and California Democrats a sense of security that they lacked earlier this year, as polls from just six weeks ago that found that likely voters were almost evenly split regarding the recall.
Mark DiCamillo, director of the poll, attributed the governor’s success to his campaign’s effort to redefine the recall as a Republican attempt to reinstate “Trumpism,” especially as conservative talk show host and Donald Trump loyalist Larry Elder has emerged as a favored Newsom replacement.
“In the early going it was probably more about whether they liked Newsom or not. It was personalized,” DiCamillo said. “By attacking his challenger, which is Elder, and framing it as ‘Look at what you’ll get if you vote for this guy’ … I think that really won the day.”
