Nate Silver Casually Makes $100k Bet With Pro-Trump Investor on Florida Presidential Election Results

Phillip NietoOct 4th, 2024, 12:56 pm
 

Pollster Nate Silver challenged a pro-Trump investor to a $100,000 bet on the results of the presidential election in the state of Florida.

On Thursday, Silver linked to an article on his site, written by Eli McKown-Dawson, analyzing if a win for Harris in the state is realistic. Trump won the state — where he spends most of his time, at his Mar-a-Lago resort — in the last two presidential elections. He expanded his margin of victory there in 2020.

On top of that, the state has Republican supermajorities in both legislative chambers and has not elected a Democratic senator in more than a decade. The article in question broke down if Florida was worth the investment of the Harris campaign.

Dawson noted that “success is unlikely, but the payoff is high” if Harris devotes some of her resources to making Florida a competitive race.

Investor Keith Rabois, an active Republican donor who hosted JD Vance at a fundraiser for the Trump campaign in New York City last month, responded to Silver on X by calling him a “buffoon” and insisting that Trump would win the state by a minimum of eight percentage points.

“You are a buffoon. Minimum Trump win in FL is 8 points and more likely 10-14,” wrote Rabois before Silver responded by asking how much he would be willing to risk on those claims. Rabois claimed he was comfortable risking $100,000 that Trump wins Florida by at least eight points.

Silver’s next response was demanding Rabois reach out to a lawyer and sign a contract for the bet.

“Have your lawyer draw up a quick contract and it’s a deal. NATE DOT SILVER DOT MEDIA AT GMAIL DOT COM. No contract, no bet, because you’ve been nutty lately and are a payment risk,” Silver concluded.

There are 31 days until Election Day.

Tags: