Final New York Times Poll Shows Harris And Trump Tied Nationally, WSJ Has Trump Up Three Points
The New York Times released its final poll of the 2024 election season on Friday and found the presidential race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump to be a dead heat, tied at 48 percent each.
The poll, conducted along with Siena College, comes amid a spate of new data, including polls from the The Wall Street Journal and CNBC that both found Trump in the lead by 3 and 2 points respectively.
The Times summary of the poll noted the relative stability of its result as in early October Harris led 49 to 46 percent – within the near 4-point margin of error. The Times survey is one of the larger polls out there, looking at 2,516 voters, while the Journal polled 1,500 registered voters and has a margin of error of 2.5 points.
“Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump remain effectively tied even after three of the most tumultuous months in recent American political history. A high-profile debate, two attempts on Mr. Trump’s life, dozens of rallies across seven battlefield states and hundreds of millions spent on advertisements have seemingly done little to change the trajectory of the race,” wrote the Times.
The Times poll did find Harris leading with Independents 49 to 44 percent, but also had Trump up 47 to 46 percent when third-party candidates were taken into account.
The Journal explained what it believes is behind Trump’s lead, writing that Harris’s favorability numbers have continued to tank in recent months, while Trump has actually become more popular.
“Views of Harris have turned more negative since August, when equal shares of voters viewed her favorably and unfavorably. Now, the unfavorable views are dominant by 8 percentage points, 53% to 45%. Moreover, voters give Harris her worst job rating as vice president in the three times the Journal has asked about it since July, with 42% approving and 54% disapproving of her performance,” wrote the Journal’s Aaron Zitner.
The Journal also found that voters approve of Trump’s time in office by a 4-point margin, 52 to 48 percent. Zitner adds that neither candidate has a clear lock on a win and explains that turnout and same-day registration and voting in key states could easily flip the result.
“A number of factors could yet affect the outcome. With both campaigns racing to turn out voters who side with their candidate, the survey found that both campaigns have a motivation challenge. Some 74% of Black voters, a group that strongly favors Harris, say they will definitely vote, compared with 81% of white voters, a group on the whole that leans toward Trump,” he explains.
The Times also made clear that the poll shows a chunk of voters who are firmly behind neither candidate: “And Ms. Harris still has room to grow. About 15 percent of voters described themselves as not fully decided, and Ms. Harris is leading with that group, 42 percent to 32 percent. Two weeks ago, Mr. Trump had a minute edge with undecided or persuadable voters, 36 percent to 35 percent.”
