Trump Seems Likely to Win the 2024 Election — And Conservatives Should Mourn That, Not Celebrate it

To write about American politics in the age of Trump is to be vexed by the question of how to cover its defining figure.

On the one hand, the plain truth that Donald Trump is both a cause and symptom of America’s increasingly fraught and dysfunctional system seems axiomatic. It is also ground that has been covered ceaselessly — and often hysterically — by the press for the duration of his political career.

But on the other, much of the right remains reluctant to so much as acknowledge the former president’s manifold faults. Once again, its institutions and power brokers have not only coalesced behind, but surrendered themselves wholly to him, subordinating their purported purpose of advocating timeless principles to act as vehicles of his will.

So with Trump standing on the precipice of power again fewer than four years after his sore loser syndrome and lies inspired a mob to storm the U.S. Capitol Building and threaten the life of his own vice president — and so many so-called conservatives giddy about the prospect — it is more than worth once again articulating the conservative case against him.

It is this author’s belief that Trump will defeat Vice President Kamala Harris next month. Polling suggests that the race between the two is a toss-up, but Trump easily outperformed the polls in 2016 and 2020. Moreover, surveys have been moving steadily in his direction over the course of the last month of the campaign, and Harris has resorted to increasingly desperate closing messages about Trump’s cognitive state and resemblance to 20th-century fascists. For these reasons, it can be reasonably argued that Trump is the clear favorite in roughly the same way that Hillary Clinton was the favorite eight years ago.

Assuming that Trump does prevail, conservatives will have much to reckon with. Indeed, they will have more, on balance, to mourn about his victory than they will to celebrate.

That’s not to submit that a Harris victory would be preferable or to shame voters for whatever decision they arrive at. The vice president is the most progressive major party nominee in American history. She would champion exaggerated versions of all of Joe Biden’s disastrous economic policies, leave the southern border open, and be an uncredible commander-in-chief to our allies and enemies alike. She believes in abortion on-demand up until the moment of birth, would continue to allow radical gender ideology to shape the medical establishment’s treatment of confused children, and is a proud opponent of religious freedom.

Ruling her out, or deciding to back Trump on any of those bases is more than understandable. On policy, it is inarguable Trump will do a lot more to please even the old right than Harris would.

But to characterize Trump’s reelection as anything other than, at best, the lesser of two evil eventualities is to lie to oneself.

On the heels of the January 6 Capitol riot, Senate Republicans had the opportunity to end Trump’s political career then and there. Trump’s outrageous lies about the 2020 election, which culminated in violence that he egged on, should have been more than enough to disqualify him from running for office again. There were undoubtedly Republican senators who agreed, but nevertheless failed to express that by voting for his conviction for fear of the political reprisal that would await them.

GOP voters had the opportunity to correct for their representatives’ cowardice during the presidential primary but ultimately decided to prove them right, picking Trump over more competent and ideologically solid choices like Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley, each of whom would doubtlessly be equally as well, if not better positioned in the presidential race.

At two crucial veto points, conservatives declined to make what should have been the easy choice, opting for more schadenfreude-heavy showmanship over the best interest of the country.

It is also the case that a second Trump term will inevitably be worse than the the first. While his first administration had men whose patriotism outweighed their ambition in key positions, including the vice presidency, this coming one will not. Mike Pence sacrificed his political career by refusing to go along with Trump’s scheme to steal the 2020 election. JD Vance has not only criticized Pence for doing so, but smeared him as a bloodthirsty warmonger to gain Trump’s affection. To have men of similarly low character as the 45th president surrounding the 47th does not bode well.

Trump’s decision to tap Vance as his running mate also suggests that he will not govern as a Reaganite Republican. The Ohio senator is strident in his opposition to aiding the cause of Ukraine, but will gladly throw pro-lifers under the bus. He’s a fan of the Biden administration’s regulator-in-chief, Lina Khan, and a critic of free-marketeers. When he speaks, Vance sounds much more like a Jimmy Carter Democrat than the man who cleaned up after his mess.

With his retreat on the abortion issue and mealy-mouthed posture toward Russia, Trump oftentimes sounds like the same.

The right has collectively made its choice about who to throw its weight behind this year. Faced with two bad options, it has made a determination about which is better — time will tell if it is proven correct.

In the meantime, conservatives owe it to themselves and their countrymen to be clear-eyed about that decision — and prepare to deal with its ramifications.

This is an opinion piece. The views expressed in this article are those of just the author.